TOP 8 CUT15 ptsMedian 8th-place points
14–16 pts · 10th–90th percentileMean 15.16
Tournament probabilities
| Club | Top 8 | Play-off | Out | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCBBayern München | 84.6% | 15.0% | 0.36% | 97.1% | 76.1% | 55.8% | 38.8% | 24.1% |
BARBarcelona | 71.2% | 27.6% | 1.2% | 92.9% | 68.3% | 46.9% | 30.4% | 17.7% |
ARSArsenal | 64.6% | 33.9% | 1.5% | 89.8% | 61.9% | 39.6% | 24.1% | 13.4% |
RMAReal Madrid | 66.4% | 31.9% | 1.7% | 89.9% | 60.3% | 36.8% | 20.7% | 10.7% |
SCPSporting CP | 43.1% | 50.9% | 5.9% | 76.8% | 44.1% | 23.1% | 11.2% | 5.1% |
MCIManchester City | 39.8% | 53.4% | 6.8% | 73.1% | 39.2% | 19.1% | 8.6% | 3.7% |
PSGParis Saint-Germain | 33.0% | 56.4% | 10.6% | 67.4% | 35.1% | 16.7% | 7.3% | 3.1% |
LIVLiverpool | 43.4% | 50.0% | 6.5% | 73.3% | 37.8% | 17.4% | 7.3% | 3.0% |
BODBodø/Glimt | 22.0% | 60.4% | 17.6% | 57.5% | 28.0% | 12.6% | 5.2% | 2.1% |
RCLLens | 32.6% | 56.5% | 10.9% | 64.7% | 31.0% | 13.5% | 5.3% | 2.1% |
PSVPSV | 22.6% | 59.2% | 18.2% | 57.9% | 28.1% | 12.5% | 5.1% | 2.0% |
VILVillarreal | 27.4% | 58.9% | 13.7% | 61.8% | 29.7% | 13.0% | 5.1% | 2.0% |
MUNManchester United | 23.3% | 59.3% | 17.4% | 55.8% | 25.0% | 10.3% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
BVBBorussia Dortmund | 30.4% | 58.2% | 11.4% | 61.6% | 27.1% | 10.6% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
AVLAston Villa | 37.1% | 54.6% | 8.3% | 65.9% | 28.6% | 10.9% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
ROMRoma | 14.6% | 60.4% | 25.0% | 46.5% | 20.1% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
VFBStuttgart | 31.7% | 57.2% | 11.1% | 60.7% | 25.2% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
BETReal Betis | 24.0% | 61.6% | 14.4% | 55.0% | 22.4% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
FCPPorto | 13.3% | 60.8% | 25.9% | 43.8% | 17.9% | 6.9% | 2.5% | 0.91% |
INTInter | 13.8% | 58.2% | 28.1% | 41.9% | 16.2% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 0.65% |
ATMAtlético de Madrid | 5.7% | 48.0% | 46.3% | 28.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.47% |
RBLRB Leipzig | 5.8% | 46.8% | 47.4% | 27.7% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.39% |
GALGalatasaray | 5.7% | 48.6% | 45.7% | 26.8% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 0.91% | 0.30% |
FENFenerbahçe | 9.5% | 55.6% | 35.0% | 31.3% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 0.68% | 0.20% |
COMComo | 11.6% | 59.2% | 29.2% | 34.2% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 0.69% | 0.20% |
SHKShakhtar Donetsk | 6.2% | 49.4% | 44.4% | 24.4% | 6.9% | 1.9% | 0.44% | 0.12% |
LILLille | 1.1% | 26.7% | 72.2% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 0.81% | 0.19% | 0.05% |
CBRClub Brugge | 1.9% | 29.9% | 68.1% | 12.5% | 3.4% | 0.86% | 0.19% | 0.05% |
AEKAEK Athens | 5.3% | 48.1% | 46.5% | 19.6% | 4.5% | 0.96% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
NAPNapoli | 1.5% | 29.8% | 68.7% | 10.1% | 2.2% | 0.45% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
FEYFeyenoord | 2.0% | 32.2% | 65.8% | 11.3% | 2.4% | 0.50% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
VIKViking | 1.8% | 31.3% | 66.9% | 10.7% | 2.3% | 0.46% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
SLOSlovan Bratislava | 1.9% | 31.0% | 67.1% | 9.8% | 1.9% | 0.34% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
SABSabah | 0.65% | 20.7% | 78.6% | 5.4% | 0.93% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
LASLASK | 0.21% | 11.4% | 88.4% | 2.2% | 0.29% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
SLASlavia Praha | 0.09% | 6.8% | 93.1% | 1.2% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
2,000,000 official simulations · model data through 2026-08-07 · estimates, not guarantees.
Qualification thresholds
What final points totals mean across the official Monte Carlo universes.TOP 24 CUT9 ptsMedian 24th-place points
8–10 pts · 10th–90th percentileMean 9.26
What if a club finishes on…Empirical finish rates among simulated club-seasons with exactly that points total.
2,000,000 universesPointsTop 8Top 24Simulation sample
1799.6%100.0%2,548,973
1690.0%100.0%4,440,712
1551.3%100.0%4,096,613
1412.5%100.0%4,678,903
130.5%100.0%6,169,921
120.00%100.0%5,337,589
110.00%99.9%5,557,404
100.00%91.6%6,275,272
90.00%46.2%5,031,310
80.00%7.3%4,660,010
70.00%0.2%4,778,223
The cutoff is the points total held by the club ranked 8th or 24th in each universe. Equal points are not automatically enough: UEFA tie-breaks remain part of every simulated ranking.
Biggest probability movers
Movement tracking starts after a second official snapshot.Δ
No comparable movement snapshot yet.The initial official probability release becomes the baseline. Movers activate after the next published update under the same production model.
Probability history
Preserved official releases under the current production model.
Title0.04%Baseline
Top 85.3%Baseline
Top 2453.5%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title13.4%Baseline
Top 864.6%Baseline
Top 2498.5%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title1.3%Baseline
Top 837.1%Baseline
Top 2491.7%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title0.5%Baseline
Top 85.7%Baseline
Top 2453.7%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title17.7%Baseline
Top 871.2%Baseline
Top 2498.8%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title24.1%Baseline
Top 884.6%Baseline
Top 2499.6%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title2.1%Baseline
Top 822.0%Baseline
Top 2482.4%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title1.4%Baseline
Top 830.4%Baseline
Top 2488.6%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title0.05%Baseline
Top 81.9%Baseline
Top 2431.9%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title0.2%Baseline
Top 811.6%Baseline
Top 2470.8%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title0.2%Baseline
Top 89.5%Baseline
Top 2465.0%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title0.02%Baseline
Top 82.0%Baseline
Top 2434.2%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title0.3%Baseline
Top 85.7%Baseline
Top 2454.3%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title0.6%Baseline
Top 813.8%Baseline
Top 2471.9%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title0.00%Baseline
Top 80.2%Baseline
Top 2411.6%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title2.1%Baseline
Top 832.6%Baseline
Top 2489.1%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title0.05%Baseline
Top 81.1%Baseline
Top 2427.8%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title3.0%Baseline
Top 843.4%Baseline
Top 2493.5%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title3.7%Baseline
Top 839.8%Baseline
Top 2493.2%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title1.4%Baseline
Top 823.3%Baseline
Top 2482.6%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title0.02%Baseline
Top 81.5%Baseline
Top 2431.3%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title3.1%Baseline
Top 833.0%Baseline
Top 2489.4%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title0.9%Baseline
Top 813.3%Baseline
Top 2474.1%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title2.0%Baseline
Top 822.6%Baseline
Top 2481.8%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title0.4%Baseline
Top 85.8%Baseline
Top 2452.6%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title1.0%Baseline
Top 824.0%Baseline
Top 2485.6%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title10.7%Baseline
Top 866.4%Baseline
Top 2498.3%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title1.2%Baseline
Top 814.6%Baseline
Top 2475.0%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title0.00%Baseline
Top 80.7%Baseline
Top 2421.4%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title0.1%Baseline
Top 86.2%Baseline
Top 2455.6%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title0.00%Baseline
Top 80.09%Baseline
Top 246.9%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title0.01%Baseline
Top 81.9%Baseline
Top 2432.9%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title5.1%Baseline
Top 843.1%Baseline
Top 2494.1%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title1.1%Baseline
Top 831.7%Baseline
Top 2488.9%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title0.02%Baseline
Top 81.8%Baseline
Top 2433.1%Baseline
Matchday 1
Title2.0%Baseline
Top 827.4%Baseline
Top 2486.3%Baseline
Matchday 1
History is never reconstructed from final results. It uses probability snapshots preserved when they were published; a model promotion starts a new comparable trend segment.
WHAT IF
If this club wins, draws or loses…
Conditional tournament probabilities from the same Monte Carlo universes.Title0.07%+0.03 ppTop 812.5%+7.2 ppTop 2477.9%+24.4 pp
515,167 matching universesTitle0.05%+0.01 ppTop 84.3%-1.1 ppTop 2454.2%+0.8 pp
471,828 matching universesTitle0.03%-0.02 ppTop 82.2%-3.1 ppTop 2440.7%-12.8 pp
1,013,005 matching universesConditioned on the selected 90-minute H/D/A result. Scorelines remain model-simulated inside each branch; ProbGoal does not impose an arbitrary 1–0, 1–1 or 0–1 score.
Matches
H / D / A probabilities
Matchday 2LensvsSporting CP
H40.9%D22.9%A36.2%
Matchday 2SabahvsSlavia Praha
H52.5%D22.1%A25.4%
Matchday 2ArsenalvsLille
H63.9%D23.5%A12.7%
Matchday 2Atlético de MadridvsManchester United
H43.7%D22.0%A34.2%
Matchday 2IntervsClub Brugge
H56.1%D19.9%A24.0%
Matchday 2GalatasarayvsBarcelona
H24.7%D22.4%A53.0%
Accuracy
Validated model
Holdout186 matchesLog loss0.956Brier0.565Calibration0.045
✓Release gate passed
Model strength
Relative production-model signal01
Bayern MünchenGER
81
02
Sporting CPPOR
78
03
PSVNED
76
04
BarcelonaESP
74
05
Bodø/GlimtNOR
67
06
ArsenalENG
66
07
Real MadridESP
65
08
RomaITA
65
09
PortoPOR
63
10
InterITA
60
11
GalatasarayTUR
58
12
Club BruggeBEL
56