Seven places left: the Champions League field is still 29/36
Four play-off ties are level, three have a first-leg leader, and every remaining place will be decided before the 27 August league-phase draw.
Analysis
NOWLeague phase · Matchday 1 complete
Current probabilities are conditioned on verified final results. Older pre-draw briefings remain an archive of what was knowable at the time.
21 Aug 2026Pre-draw
Why the draw can change a club's outlook before a ball is kicked
Eight opponents, four pots and association restrictions mean schedule strength is part of the uncertainty — but the official 2026/27 procedure still has to be verified.
→21 Aug 2026Model audit
ProbGoal passed its release gate. Here is what that actually means
The production model beat a historical-frequency baseline on untouched matches in both proper scoring rules — while calibration stayed inside the safety limit.
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