Title14.0%+0.6 ppTop 874.3%+9.7 ppTop 2499.6%+1.1 pp
1,278,551 matching universesArsenal
PG SCORE · OBSERVED PERFORMANCE
Historical performance profile
93.6#2 of 36
ProfileElite historical profile
Strongest signalPrevention
WatchScoring
Evidence9 historical contexts
Prevention97
Goal balance96
Results95
Clean sheets94
Wins93
Scoring88
PG Score is not Power and not title chance. It is a separate 0–100 descriptive index built from normalized observed results with a validated 540-day historical prior. Live five-dimension blend gated · 3 current-season matches are being observed in shadow mode.
Tournament probabilities
Official ProbGoal 2,000,000-run snapshot.Title13.4%
Top 864.6%
Top 2498.5%
Play-off33.9%
Round of 1689.8%
Quarter-final61.9%
Semi-final39.6%
Final24.1%
Expected league-phase position7.63
WHAT IF
If this club wins, draws or loses…
Conditional tournament probabilities from the same Monte Carlo universes.Arsenal vs LilleMatchday 2 · 13 Oct, 19:00 UTC
Title12.6%-0.8 ppTop 851.7%-12.9 ppTop 2497.5%-1.0 pp
469,005 matching universesTitle11.6%-1.8 ppTop 839.5%-25.1 ppTop 2494.7%-3.7 pp
252,444 matching universesConditioned on the selected 90-minute H/D/A result. Scorelines remain model-simulated inside each branch; ProbGoal does not impose an arbitrary 1–0, 1–1 or 0–1 score.
Probability history
Official published snapshots · no reconstructed backfill.Title13.4%Baseline
Top 864.6%Baseline
Top 2498.5%Baseline
Matchday 1
The archive preserves every official release. The visible trend and delta use the current production model only, so a model change is never silently presented as ordinary matchday movement.
Competition status
Observed results only.Position15Points3Played1Goal diff.+1Goals1Clean sheets1
Next matches
Official league-phase schedule.Matchday 2
vs LilleTue 13 Oct, 19:00 UTC
vs LilleTue 13 Oct, 19:00 UTCMatchday 3
at Bayern MünchenWed 21 Oct, 19:00 UTC
at Bayern MünchenWed 21 Oct, 19:00 UTCMatchday 4
at Slavia PrahaWed 04 Nov, 20:00 UTC
at Slavia PrahaWed 04 Nov, 20:00 UTCMatchday 5
vs Borussia DortmundTue 24 Nov, 20:00 UTC
vs Borussia DortmundTue 24 Nov, 20:00 UTCLatest results
Verified final matches.W
Napoli1–0
Napoli1–0