Model
Match probabilities
Every tournament simulation starts with a calibrated match engine. No placeholder percentages will be published before validation.
2026/27 · Pre-launch model
Football.
Simulated.
ProbGoal turns match probabilities into tournament-level scenarios. The 2026/27 Champions League model is now being calibrated on five seasons of European football.
15 days to league-phase draw
League phase
36 clubs
29 confirmed · 7 via qualifying
Schedule
8 matches
per club in the league phase
Simulation target
2M
tournament runs per official snapshot
First matchday
8–10 SEP
2026 · league phase
ProbGoal insights
THE PRODUCT LAYERTournament
Qualification paths
Top 8, play-off, elimination and title chances will be propagated through the competition using the real league-phase fixtures.
MATCH→RATING→MONTE CARLO→OUTCOME
Transparency
Accuracy you can inspect
Backtests, calibration and model changes will be documented. ProbGoal will measure forecast quality rather than simply claim it.
BRIERLOG LOSSCALIBRATION
Confirmed teams
29 OF 36 · UEFA STATUS 12 AUG 2026Arsenal
ENG · confirmed
Aston Villa
ENG · confirmed
Atlético de Madrid
ESP · confirmed
Borussia Dortmund
GER · confirmed
Barcelona
ESP · confirmed
Bayern München
GER · confirmed
Club Brugge
BEL · confirmed
Como
ITA · confirmed
Feyenoord
NED · confirmed
Galatasaray
TUR · confirmed
Inter
ITA · confirmed
RB Leipzig
GER · confirmed
Lens
FRA · confirmed
Lille
FRA · confirmed
Liverpool
ENG · confirmed
Manchester City
ENG · confirmed
Manchester United
ENG · confirmed
Napoli
ITA · confirmed
Paris Saint-Germain
FRA · confirmed
Porto
POR · confirmed
PSV
NED · confirmed
Real Betis
ESP · confirmed
Real Madrid
ESP · confirmed
Roma
ITA · confirmed
Shakhtar Donetsk
UKR · confirmed
Slavia Praha
CZE · confirmed
Sporting CP
POR · confirmed
Stuttgart
GER · confirmed
Villarreal
ESP · confirmed
Build status
Model calibration in progress
The public interface is live first. Historical data, cross-league strength, match calibration and out-of-sample validation will be connected before the first official tournament probabilities are released.