Title1.6%+0.2 ppTop 849.3%+12.1 ppTop 2497.0%+5.3 pp
1,107,141 matching universesAston Villa
PG SCORE · OBSERVED PERFORMANCE
Historical performance profile
70.4#28 of 36
ProfileStrong historical profile
Strongest signalResults
WatchClean sheets
Evidence7 historical contexts
Results79
Wins79
Goal balance72
Prevention72
Scoring66
Clean sheets56
PG Score is not Power and not title chance. It is a separate 0–100 descriptive index built from normalized observed results with a validated 540-day historical prior. Live five-dimension blend gated · 3 current-season matches are being observed in shadow mode.
Tournament probabilities
Official ProbGoal 2,000,000-run snapshot.Title1.3%
Top 837.1%
Top 2491.7%
Play-off54.6%
Round of 1665.9%
Quarter-final28.6%
Semi-final10.9%
Final3.8%
Expected league-phase position12.39
WHAT IF
If this club wins, draws or loses…
Conditional tournament probabilities from the same Monte Carlo universes.Aston Villa vs FenerbahçeMatchday 2 · 14 Oct, 19:00 UTC
Title1.2%-0.2 ppTop 827.2%-9.9 ppTop 2489.3%-2.5 pp
413,045 matching universesTitle0.95%-0.4 ppTop 817.6%-19.5 ppTop 2481.7%-10.1 pp
479,814 matching universesConditioned on the selected 90-minute H/D/A result. Scorelines remain model-simulated inside each branch; ProbGoal does not impose an arbitrary 1–0, 1–1 or 0–1 score.
Probability history
Official published snapshots · no reconstructed backfill.Title1.3%Baseline
Top 837.1%Baseline
Top 2491.7%Baseline
Matchday 1
The archive preserves every official release. The visible trend and delta use the current production model only, so a model change is never silently presented as ordinary matchday movement.
Competition status
Observed results only.Position9Points3Played1Goal diff.+1Goals3Clean sheets0
Next matches
Official league-phase schedule.Matchday 2
vs FenerbahçeWed 14 Oct, 19:00 UTC
vs FenerbahçeWed 14 Oct, 19:00 UTCMatchday 3
vs VikingWed 21 Oct, 19:00 UTC
vs VikingWed 21 Oct, 19:00 UTCMatchday 4
at BarcelonaTue 03 Nov, 20:00 UTC
at BarcelonaTue 03 Nov, 20:00 UTCMatchday 5
at GalatasarayTue 24 Nov, 17:45 UTC
at GalatasarayTue 24 Nov, 17:45 UTCLatest results
Verified final matches.W
Club Brugge3–2
Club Brugge3–2