Title0.11%+0.06 ppTop 84.5%+3.4 ppTop 2454.2%+26.4 pp
252,444 matching universesLille
PG SCORE · OBSERVED PERFORMANCE
Historical performance profile
76.8#21 of 36
ProfileStrong historical profile
Strongest signalPrevention
WatchScoring
Evidence8 historical contexts
Prevention85
Results82
Goal balance78
Wins78
Clean sheets78
Scoring64
PG Score is not Power and not title chance. It is a separate 0–100 descriptive index built from normalized observed results with a validated 540-day historical prior. Live five-dimension blend gated · 3 current-season matches are being observed in shadow mode.
Tournament probabilities
Official ProbGoal 2,000,000-run snapshot.Title0.05%
Top 81.1%
Top 2427.8%
Play-off26.7%
Round of 1610.6%
Quarter-final3.0%
Semi-final0.81%
Final0.19%
Expected league-phase position27.59
WHAT IF
If this club wins, draws or loses…
Conditional tournament probabilities from the same Monte Carlo universes.Arsenal vs LilleMatchday 2 · 13 Oct, 19:00 UTC
Title0.06%+0.01 ppTop 81.1%-0.01 ppTop 2431.4%+3.6 pp
469,005 matching universesTitle0.04%-0.02 ppTop 80.45%-0.7 ppTop 2421.3%-6.5 pp
1,278,551 matching universesConditioned on the selected 90-minute H/D/A result. Scorelines remain model-simulated inside each branch; ProbGoal does not impose an arbitrary 1–0, 1–1 or 0–1 score.
Probability history
Official published snapshots · no reconstructed backfill.Title0.05%Baseline
Top 81.1%Baseline
Top 2427.8%Baseline
Matchday 1
The archive preserves every official release. The visible trend and delta use the current production model only, so a model change is never silently presented as ordinary matchday movement.
Competition status
Observed results only.Position23Points0Played1Goal diff.-1Goals2Clean sheets0
Next matches
Official league-phase schedule.Matchday 2
at ArsenalTue 13 Oct, 19:00 UTC
at ArsenalTue 13 Oct, 19:00 UTCMatchday 3
vs GalatasarayWed 21 Oct, 16:45 UTC
vs GalatasarayWed 21 Oct, 16:45 UTCMatchday 4
at Bodø/GlimtTue 03 Nov, 20:00 UTC
at Bodø/GlimtTue 03 Nov, 20:00 UTCMatchday 5
vs Bayern MünchenWed 25 Nov, 20:00 UTC
vs Bayern MünchenWed 25 Nov, 20:00 UTCLatest results
Verified final matches.L
Real Betis2–3
Real Betis2–3