Title1.6%+0.4 ppTop 827.3%+12.7 ppTop 2489.6%+14.6 pp
684,863 matching universesRoma
PG SCORE · OBSERVED PERFORMANCE
Historical performance profile
80.1#13 of 36
ProfileElite historical profile
Strongest signalPrevention
WatchScoring
Evidence9 historical contexts
Prevention87
Clean sheets82
Goal balance82
Wins80
Results80
Scoring71
PG Score is not Power and not title chance. It is a separate 0–100 descriptive index built from normalized observed results with a validated 540-day historical prior. Live five-dimension blend gated · 3 current-season matches are being observed in shadow mode.
Tournament probabilities
Official ProbGoal 2,000,000-run snapshot.Title1.2%
Top 814.6%
Top 2475.0%
Play-off60.4%
Round of 1646.5%
Quarter-final20.1%
Semi-final8.2%
Final3.1%
Expected league-phase position18.05
WHAT IF
If this club wins, draws or loses…
Conditional tournament probabilities from the same Monte Carlo universes.Roma vs Real MadridMatchday 2 · 14 Oct, 19:00 UTC
Title1.1%-0.06 ppTop 811.6%-3.0 ppTop 2474.7%-0.3 pp
461,626 matching universesTitle0.89%-0.3 ppTop 86.1%-8.5 ppTop 2463.4%-11.6 pp
853,511 matching universesConditioned on the selected 90-minute H/D/A result. Scorelines remain model-simulated inside each branch; ProbGoal does not impose an arbitrary 1–0, 1–1 or 0–1 score.
Probability history
Official published snapshots · no reconstructed backfill.Title1.2%Baseline
Top 814.6%Baseline
Top 2475.0%Baseline
Matchday 1
The archive preserves every official release. The visible trend and delta use the current production model only, so a model change is never silently presented as ordinary matchday movement.
Competition status
Observed results only.Position17Points1Played1Goal diff.0Goals1Clean sheets0
Next matches
Official league-phase schedule.Matchday 2
vs Real MadridWed 14 Oct, 19:00 UTC
vs Real MadridWed 14 Oct, 19:00 UTCMatchday 3
vs Slovan BratislavaTue 20 Oct, 19:00 UTC
vs Slovan BratislavaTue 20 Oct, 19:00 UTCMatchday 4
at Manchester UnitedTue 03 Nov, 20:00 UTC
at Manchester UnitedTue 03 Nov, 20:00 UTCMatchday 5
at Paris Saint-GermainWed 25 Nov, 20:00 UTC
at Paris Saint-GermainWed 25 Nov, 20:00 UTCLatest results
Verified final matches.D
Fenerbahçe1–1
Fenerbahçe1–1